effects of Atlantic sea surface temperature on rainfall over some coastal cities in nigeria

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ABSTRACT

 

This study examines the effect of Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature on rainfall in some selected coastal stations in Nigeria for a period of 10 years (1991 – 2000). Correlation between rainfall and Atlantic SST of  the coastal stations and to determine the trend of Atlantic SST and rainfall of the coastal stations over the 10 years period (1991 – 2000) were determined. Sea Surface Temperature and monthly rainfall data were used for this study. The Atlantic SST covers 10 years spanning between 1991 – 2000 was made available by the European Centre for Medium Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and the rainfall data for Ikeja and Calabar  used for this study were collected from Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) and Ondo (Okitipupa) State was made available By Climate Research Unit (CRU). Statistical analysis which include mean, standard deviation, trend analysis and correlation analysis were carried out. The rainfall and SST data were standardized to reduce problems inherent in the analysis of rainfall: the highly diverse means and variances and the randomness of the convective process reflected in individual station. The result showed that Atlantic SST has a little role to play in determining the rainfall of the coastal states. The trend of Atlantic SST was found to be increasing while the rainfall trend in Ikeja and Okitipupa was decreasing and that of Calabar was increasing. The correlation coefficient (R2) of Atlantic SST against Ikeja is 0.119 while that of Atlantic SST against Okitipupa is 0.018 and that of Atlantic SST against Calabar is 0.014. This result which shows that there is no significant correlation between the Atlantic SST and the coastal stations and that Atlantic SST has little or no effect on Rainfall in these coastal stations.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DEDICATION

 

I dedicate this Project work to God the Almighty and to the benefit of Mankind, for giving me the privilege and opportunity to complete this research work.


 

 

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

 

                My gratitude goes to God for his grace, mercies, protection, provision and love that saw me through the course of my 5 years programme in FUTA. All glory and adoration to be unto him alone.

 

                My special thanks goes to my father Mr. Wilson Adebayo who lead me in the way of education and also my variable mother Mrs. Wilson Gbeminiyi for her support. This will not be completed without extending my sincere thanks to my Grandmother for her immense contribution to my success in the area of finance and motherly care.

 

                My undiluted gratitude goes to my able supervisor, an academic titan, astute researcher, DR. A.Akinbobola for taking time off his tight schedule to proofread and mend my shortcomings during the course of this project work.

 

                I also appreciate and acknowledge DR. K.P Menang for his contributions and the knowledge imparted in me. I will also like to record a special thanks to my Head of  Department, DR M.I Oladapo and also appreciate the contributions of all lecturers in the Department of Marine Science and Technology.

 

                I will also like to thank the Nigerian Meteorological agency (NIMET), Climate Research Unit (CRU) and European Centre for Medium and Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) for dishing out their data.

 

                Finally, to my entire course mates and well-wishers, for making my program in FUTA a pleasant experience and fun filled, I say thank you so much.

 

God bless you all.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Table of Contents

COVER PAGE……………………………………………………………………………………………..i

CERTIFICATION………………………………………………………………………………………….ii

ABSTRACT                      iii

DEDICATION                   iv

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS                 v

TABLE OF CONTENTS                     vi

LIST OF FIGURES       viii

LIST OF TABLES          x

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION           1

1.1                 BACKGROUND OF STUDY           1

1.2                  AIM AND OBJECTIVES                   2

1.2.1              AIM:             2

1.2.2             OBJECTIVES:                 2

1.3                  STUDY AREA                 3

1.3.1              LOCATION                        3

CHAPTER TWO

2.0                  LITERATURE REVIEW                      7

CHAPTER THREE

3.0                  METHODOLOGY         10

3.1                 DATA ACQUISITION/FIELD PROCEDURES  10

3.2                 LABORATORY ANALYSIS AND METHODS 10

3.2.1              STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR RAINFALL                10

3.2.2              SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE  11

CHAPTER FOUR          12

4.0                 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION        12

CHAPTER FIVE

5.1                  SUMMARY                       34

5.2                 CONCLUSION                34

5.3                  RECOMMENDATION 35

REFERENCES

APPENDIX

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LIST OF FIGURES

 

Fig 1: Map of Nigeria showing Lagos, Calabar & Ondo the coastal stations used for this study

Fig 2: Map of Nigeria showing the three coastal states used for this study

Fig.3: Showing the location where the SST data was acquired along the Nigeria coast

Fig 4: Annual variation of Sea Surface Temperature at 0000hrs

Fig 5: Annual variation of Sea Surface Temperature at 0600hrs

Fig 6: Annual variation of Sea Surface Temperature at 1200hrs

Fig 7: Annual variation of Sea Surface Temperature at 1800hrs

Fig 8: Monthly variation of Sea Surface Temperature at 0000hrs

Fig 9: Monthly variation of Sea Surface Temperature at 0600hrs

Fig 10: Monthly variation of Sea Surface Temperature at 1200hrs

Fig 11: Monthly variation of Sea Surface Temperature at 1800hrs

Fig 12: Over all monthly variation of Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature

Fig 13: Annual variation of Sea Surface Temperature over the decade (1991-2000)

Fig 14: Annual rainfall variation of Calabar over a decade (1991 – 2000)

Fig 15: Annual rainfall variation of Ikeja over a decade (1991 – 2000)

Fig 16: Annual variation of rainfall (mm) of Okitipupa over a decade (1991-2000)

Fig 17: Monthly variation of rainfall (mm) of Calabar

Fig 18: Monthly variation of rainfall (mm) of Ikeja

Fig 19: Monthly variation of rainfall (mm) of Okitipupa

Fig 20: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature trend over the 10 years

Fig 21: Rainfall trend of Ikeja (1991 – 2000)

Fig 22: Rainfall trend of Calabar (1991 – 2000)

Fig 23: Rainfall trend of Okitipupa (1991-2000)

Fig 24: Standardized anomaly graph of Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature

Fig 25: Standardized rainfall anomaly graph of Calabar

Fig 26: Standardized rainfall anomaly of Ikeja

Fig 27: Standardized rainfall anomaly of Okitipupa

Fig 28: Relationship between Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature & rainfall in Ikeja

Fig 29: Relationship between Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature & rainfall in Calabar

Fig 30: Relationship between Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature & rainfall in Okitipupa

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LIST OF TABLES

 

Table 1.0: Showing above, below and within normal rainfall years

Table 2.0: Showing the correlation co efficient (R2) of Atlantic SST over the coastal stations

Table 3.0: Showing monthly average for Sea Surface Temperature

 


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